MSP profitability: Market splits as some MSPs stagnate — Jessica Davis, Omdia

The episode highlights a structural split within the managed services market, defined by how different segments are responding to rising economic uncertainty, AI experimentation, and shifting revenue expectations. Omdia’s recent partner sentiment polls reveal a divergence: approximately 44% of channel partners expect their revenue to fall, while 41% anticipate growth—signaling a bifurcation rather than a broad recession. The episode identifies this as a period of market stress with implications similar to the post-2008 transition from break-fix to recurring revenue, but now driven by new pressures and emerging technologies such as AI.

Key evidence centers on AI-related services, where Omdia reported around 60% growth, concentrated among a minority of advanced MSPs, compared to roughly 10% for managed services overall. This growth remains experimental, with most providers currently using AI to drive internal efficiencies rather than as client-facing offerings. The ongoing uncertainty around how AI capabilities will be priced and delivered through the MSP channel mirrors previous transitions—such as the shift to cloud licensing—where price-setting power and business models were contested between vendors and service providers.

Supporting developments discussed include new funding models entering the acquisition market, such as E4N’s family office–backed approach, as well as ongoing activity among larger MSP roll-ups like Evergreen and Shield. These capital trends emphasize client relationships and patience over scale, according to public statements, countering assumptions that size alone drives value. There is increased focus on data ownership and operational analytics, including vendors requesting detailed operating data before acquisition or onboarding, and concerns that future automation may reduce the depth or accessibility of provider-held data.

Operationally, MSPs are advised to focus on understanding and preserving the value of their client relationships and operational data. Uncertainty around AI implementation, pricing models, and data retention introduces new governance risks and requires providers to remain flexible. Smaller and mid-sized MSPs must critically assess their own business metrics and data while tracking how vendors might eventually control pricing and market direction, recognizing that decisions made during this period of experimentation may affect future operational autonomy and valuation.

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