Recent economic data indicates that the US economy remains resilient, with inflation reported at 2.5% higher in January compared to the previous year, suggesting the possibility of achieving the Federal Reserve’s 2% target without triggering a recession. Despite this optimistic outlook, challenges persist: job openings are declining, and inflation continues to affect certain areas, such as home electricity prices.
Small business optimism has slightly dipped, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index falling to 99.3 in February 2026, still above the 52-year average of 98. Notably, 16% of owners anticipate higher sales volumes, a six-point increase that suggests potential growth opportunities for small enterprises. However, concerns about rising insurance costs and labor quality remain significant challenges, with 13% citing insurance as their top issue and 16% highlighting labor quality.
A recent Edelman report reveals a significant global decline in trust in technology companies, with a 3 percentage-point drop as we enter 2026 compared to the previous year. This decline in trust, which affects nearly all institutions, including education, healthcare, and financial services, highlights a growing skepticism among users. Notably, trust in artificial intelligence companies has decreased sharply, while China is one of the few countries reporting an increase in trust, likely due to its tightly controlled information environment. According to a YouGov survey, over one-third of respondents expressed fears that A.I. could threaten human existence, while 80 percent of firms reported no noticeable impact of A.I. on productivity
Why do we care?
We have two data points that, when you put them side by side, should make every MSP stop and think hard about what they’ve been selling over the last year and a half.
Eighty percent of firms — eighty percent — report no noticeable AI productivity impact. Even if that number moves, a majority of firms are not seeing measurable AI productivity gains.
That’s a credibility gap. And here’s where the NFIB data makes it worse: those same small business owners are watching their insurance bills climb and they can’t find good employees. That is the exact wrong environment to be walking into with an AI upsell that has no outcome data behind it.
Trust doesn’t stay contained at the hyperscaler level. It flows downstream to whoever recommends the tools. That’s you. And if you’ve been using vendor marketing language as your value proposition — “AI-powered,” “intelligent automation,” “next-gen” — without building the measurement infrastructure to prove it, you are now carrying liability for a promise the technology hasn’t kept.
When productivity gains don’t materialize and trust declines at the same time, CFOs don’t double down — they audit. They measure. They cut what can’t prove value. If your AI positioning isn’t tied to documented, defensible outcomes, you’re not selling transformation. You’re volunteering for review.
The MSPs who come out of this period with stronger client relationships are the ones who bring the skepticism to the client before the client brings it to them. The MSPs who bring skepticism first protect their credibility before clients question it.