Small business optimism hit a new high with the NFIB Index reaching 99.5 in December, up 0.5 points from November. This reflects growing confidence among owners in better economic conditions, driven by lower costs and positive outlooks for capital investment. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg notes that while tax concerns remain—cited by 20% as their top issue—there’s a shift in mindset. Challenges like inflation and supply chain disruptions affect 64%, with 33% reporting unfilled jobs, highlighting ongoing labor shortages. Capital spending is rising, with 56% investing in equipment, though only 19% plan further investment soon.
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) reported record growth in its 2025 Annual Report, highlighting over $100 billion in capital access through various loan and investment programs. The report reveals that the SBA has guaranteed $45 billion through 85,000 small business loans and achieved a portfolio volume of $53 billion in its Small Business Investment Company Program. The agency’s reorganization efforts resulted in a 50% reduction in workforce and eliminated $300 million in annual expenses. However, small business owners are reminded to stay vigilant about potential challenges, including longer response times due to workforce cuts and the time required for new initiatives to take effect.
Why do we care?
Small business owners are optimistic. Great. But optimistic about what? When you dig into the NFIB data, 20% say taxes are their top problem, 64% are still getting hammered by inflation and supply chain issues, and a third can’t fill open positions.
When your SMB clients read ‘optimism hits new high,’ they start talking about expansion, projects, spending. But the 56% who already invested in equipment versus the 19% planning to invest tells you the spending already happened. You might be chasing demand that’s in the rearview mirror.
Meanwhile, the SBA just cut half its workforce and is calling it efficiency. If any of your clients are planning technology projects that depend on SBA-backed financing—and a lot of SMB capital expenditure does—you should plan for significantly longer processing times—potentially two to three months or more. The SBA’s own report acknowledges ‘longer response times’ as a known tradeoff, though they don’t quantify it.
The behavior that will hurt you: You hear growth talk, you hire a tech or sign a lease, then demand doesn’t materialize because their optimism was about future policy, not current budget. Fixed costs, no revenue.
The 33% unfilled jobs number is your actual opportunity. That’s not sentiment—that’s a structural labor problem. Every SMB owner who can’t hire their fifth employee is a prospect for managed services. You’re not selling technology; you’re selling headcount they can’t find.