I’ll start with some reporting in the Guardian, indicating Small business owners in the United States remain cautious but are not abandoning their ventures, despite a challenging economic landscape. Recent surveys indicate that 56% of small businesses reported growth, and 90% have maintained or increased their workforce over the past year, with nearly half raising wages in the last three months, according to Principal Financial’s Well-Being Index. However, many entrepreneurs are feeling the impact of economic pressures, with 43% stating that current conditions are detrimental to their operations. The National Federation of Small Businesses found a slight uptick in optimism, with concerns shifting from inflation to taxation. In a survey by US Bank, 96% of small business owners described their operations as successful, and 88% reported growth in the past year, reflecting a complex yet resilient outlook amidst ongoing challenges.
Among their large corporate counterparts, economic sentiment among America’s top CEOs has dropped to its lowest level since 2020, according to a survey conducted by the Business Roundtable. The CEO Economic Outlook Index fell by 15 points in the second quarter to a score of 69, significantly below the historical average of 83. This decline reflects widespread concern about hiring, investment, and sales growth, with over 40 percent of CEOs expecting to reduce their workforces in the next six months, up from roughly 30 percent in the previous quarter. Joshua Bolten, the Business Roundtable’s CEO, noted that uncertainty stemming from trade policies is driving the decline, emphasizing the need for the Administration to secure market-opening deals and eliminate harmful tariffs.
And our data may start getting worse. The recent federal hiring freezes and funding cuts are beginning to impact the flow of economic data produced by the U.S. government. According to a report by the American Statistical Association, the Bureau of Labor Statistics budget has decreased by 19% in inflation-adjusted terms since 2009, with President Trump’s 2026 budget proposal calling for an additional 8% cut. This decline in funding has led to significant changes in data collection practices, including the suspension of Consumer Price Index data collection in three midsize cities and the elimination of hundreds of subindexes. Former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen highlighted that the reduction in resources is affecting response rates, making it harder to gather accurate economic data.
Young workers are expressing unprecedented levels of anxiety regarding their job security, with a recent report from Glassdoor indicating that employee confidence has hit a record low of 43.4% as of May 2025. This decline in confidence marks a significant drop from a peak of 53.6% in November 2021.
Why do we care?
Because the numbers don’t agree with the vibes—and that’s exactly the problem for IT services professionals.
At the surface, small businesses appear resilient: most are growing, hiring, and even raising wages. But nearly half still say the economy is hurting them. That contradiction reflects a brittle optimism—one where growth is still happening, but under pressure. For IT service providers, this means your SMB clients might keep investing in tech, but they’ll expect more tangible value for every dollar. “Nice-to-haves” are off the table. Strategic spend? Still viable—but only if you can tie it to risk reduction, cost efficiency, or business continuity.
In contrast, enterprise sentiment is collapsing. CEOs are pulling back on hiring and investment. That drag at the top will trickle down into reduced vendor spend, longer sales cycles, and possible ripple effects on high-end MSPs that service mid-market or enterprise accounts. If you’re riding the coattails of vendor growth or leaning on indirect enterprise contracts, brace for tightening.
Add to this a data visibility crisis: the degradation of government economic data is no small footnote. Reliable stats are crucial for planning, forecasting, and advising clients. As data quality erodes, strategic decision-making becomes harder—not just for policymakers, but for service providers trying to advise SMBs on risk, compliance, or expansion timing. You’re flying with fogged-up instruments.
Finally, the collapse in worker confidence—particularly among young employees—should raise alarms for MSPs managing internal or client-facing support desks. Anxiety breeds churn, quiet quitting, and a greater need for clear communication, stable leadership, and empathetic automation. It also opens opportunity: AI-powered knowledge bases, automation tools, and mental health-aligned digital wellness services may become compelling offers.
This is a credibility moment for IT service providers: Those who can combine tactical stability with smart, adaptive forecasting will stand out. The mismatch between small business growth and macro pessimism means MSPs must act as local economic interpreters—filtering national uncertainty through the lens of each client’s risk profile.
This isn’t a time to over-promise AI transformation or new tech stacks. It’s a time to double down on resilience-as-a-service—emphasizing continuity, security, data integrity, and employee enablement.
If you’re not already offering advisory services around operational efficiency, cost-aware tech planning, or workforce productivity—start. The clients who weather this moment will remember who helped them adapt.