Jay McBain on Why AI and SaaS Marketplaces Are Redefining MSP Revenue Models

The dominant structural shift outlined is an accelerating concentration of market power and operational control within a handful of large technology companies and platforms, exacerbated by aggressive vendor channel consolidation and a move toward marketplace-based service delivery. This concentration is evidenced by recent actions such as Broadcom’s decision to cut roughly 90% of VMware’s partners and take top-tier accounts direct, as well as the increasing tendency of hyperscalers and major vendors—including Microsoft, AWS, and Google—to funnel services and resources directly through their own marketplaces and forward-deployed engineering teams. Reports discussed, such as the Omnia Global Partner 1000, reinforce the extent to which the industry has pivoted toward highly scaled players at the expense of smaller channel partners and MSPs.

Evidence from the Omnia Global Partner 1000 report demonstrates that the top 30 service partners now generate the same amount of revenue as the bottom 970 combined, with the remaining 970 firms outperforming over a million additional smaller providers. The managed services market was noted at $608 billion—1.5 times the size of the global SaaS industry and all hyperscalers—yet smaller MSPs report decreased growth expectations and declining vendor satisfaction; for example, satisfaction in the UK and Ireland dropped from 37% to 19%. Further, partner programs for generative AI remain underdeveloped, with over 90% at only “maturity 3 of 10,” while 82% of MSPs acknowledge they are not prepared to scale as rapidly as customer demand for AI-driven outcomes will require.

Additional developments deepening this concentration include widespread launches of vendor-controlled marketplaces and the growth of token-based consumption models. Companies such as SuperOps, ManageEngine, and Pax8 are positioning their platforms as marketplaces for MSP-delivered AI and SaaS, while Microsoft and AWS continue to expand both their direct-to-customer strategy and investments in pre-sale technical resources. Analysts project that the shift toward token-based billing and variable consumption will disrupt traditional per-user pricing, limiting future margin opportunities and accelerating direct transactional relationships between vendors and end-customers.

For MSPs and service providers, these shifts increase dependency on large vendor platforms, raise the risk of abrupt contract changes, and intensify pricing and margin pressure. Traditional models relying on single-source vendor relationships and predictable per-user or per-device billing are likely to be replaced by variable, consumption-based contracts governed by token usage and direct marketplace transactions. Providers must prepare for heightened governance requirements, increased operational complexity in managing multi-vendor and multi-marketplace integrations, and potential threats to their role as strategic intermediaries in client accounts.

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ABOUT JAY MCBAIN
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Chief Analyst — Channels, Partnerships & Ecosystems at Omdia (formerly Canalys, now part of Informa Tech). Previously principal analyst covering the channel at Forrester Research. Named Channel Influencer of the Year. Author of the Omdia Global Partner 1000 — the definitive ranking of the top thousand channel firms globally.
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaymcbain/
🔗 Omdia: https://omdia.tech.informa.com/authors/jay-mcbain

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ABOUT THE SHOW
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Chapters and timestamps added after the live.

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