ChatGPT’s user growth has shown signs of slowing down, with recent data from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower indicating a modest 6% increase in global monthly active users from August to November 2025, bringing the total to approximately 810 million. While ChatGPT still leads the market with 50% of global mobile downloads and 55% of monthly active users, Google’s Gemini has made significant strides, experiencing a 30% growth in its user base during the same timeframe, largely attributed to the success of its new image generation model, Nano Banana. Over the past seven months, Gemini has increased its share of monthly active users by three percentage points, while ChatGPT’s share has decreased by an equivalent amount. The report also highlights that Gemini users now spend an average of 11 minutes per day in the app, a 120% increase since March, compared to a mere 6% increase in time spent by ChatGPT users. These trends suggest that Google may be narrowing the competitive gap in the AI chatbot market, prompting OpenAI to focus on enhancing its offerings.
Why do we care?
When a flashy new model comes out and millions of users jump apps overnight, that tells you the model is the commodity. The loyalty isn’t to ChatGPT or Gemini — it’s to whatever feels newest, fastest, or coolest that week. And if the models can be swapped that easily, then that layer of the stack isn’t where the value is.
This is exactly why MSPs shouldn’t bet their business on a single AI vendor. The consumers are showing us the future: people will use multiple models, switch between them, and treat them like utilities. What matters is how the model gets used, not which model it is.
That’s where the opportunity sits. Customers need help building the processes around AI — the data pipelines, the identity controls, the workflow automation, the governance. They need someone to keep them from turning AI into a shadow IT disaster. And none of that is tied to a specific model.
This trend tells us where to invest. Don’t pour energy into becoming the “ChatGPT MSP” or the “Gemini MSP.” Become the provider who knows how to turn any model into a secure, controlled, measurable piece of the customer’s workflow. That’s the durable layer. That’s the defensible value. The model? That’s the commodity now.