The U.S. economy is showing resilience despite ongoing trade tensions, as consumer spending remains strong and unemployment filings are low. In June, retail sales rose by 0.6%, exceeding economists’ expectations, following a previous decline in May that had raised concerns about consumer caution. According to Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers, the increase in retail sales is expected to support solid growth in gross domestic product for the second quarter, although he warns that uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to cast a shadow on the economic outlook. Filings for unemployment benefits also fell by 7,000 last week, highlighting a stable labor market, while surveys from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve indicate that manufacturers anticipate growth and increased hiring in the coming months. However, concerns remain about rising prices due to import costs, which rose by 0.4% in June, marking the largest monthly increase in over a year.
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna asserts that fears of artificial intelligence eliminating jobs are exaggerated, arguing instead that AI will enhance employment opportunities. In an interview with Axios, he stated that while some clerical positions may be phased out, overall job creation will be driven by increased productivity. Krishna highlighted that AI is already enabling IBM to cut costs, projecting an increase in annual savings from $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion by 2025. He noted that while the number of employees remains constant, the nature of their work is changing, with recent layoffs in human resources being offset by new hiring in programming and sales.
Global IT spending is projected to rise nearly 8% year-over-year, reaching $5.43 trillion in 2025, according to research from Gartner. This growth comes amid economic uncertainties and a shift in enterprise spending behaviors. Despite a significant pause in new expenditures due to concerns over a potential trade war and supply chain disruptions, investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, particularly in data center systems, are booming. Gartner reports that spending on data center hardware is expected to spike over 40% this year, nearly doubling previous growth forecasts.
Why do we care?
Retail’s up, unemployment’s down, and we’re all supposed to feel good. But inflation’s creeping through the back door—import prices just had their biggest jump in a year. So yeah, things look stable, but watch for volatility in the fall. Tariffs will take a while to hit.
IBM’s CEO says AI won’t kill jobs. Sure, if you’re IBM, and you can swap HR folks for engineers. But what about everyone else? The jobs aren’t disappearing—they’re morphing into roles many companies aren’t ready to fill.
And Gartner says IT spend hits $5.43 trillion next year. Sounds great—until you realize most of that is hyperscalers pouring cash into data centers. If you’re an MSP, the signal isn’t “everyone’s spending”—it’s “AI’s eating the budget.”
The money is flowing—but only if you’re building services that ride the AI wave. This is the moment to pivot hard: toward automation, toward outcomes, toward strategic value. Miss that, and you’re just managing legacy while the market moves on.