So let’s take a look at some of the larger market data.
Microsoft’s Windows 11 has officially surpassed Windows 10 to become the most widely used desktop operating system, capturing 52 percent of the market share compared to Windows 10’s 44.59 percent. This milestone comes just months before Windows 10’s scheduled end of support on October 14, 2025. Despite becoming the most popular operating system for PC gaming in September 2024, Windows 11’s overall adoption has been slower than that of its predecessor. Data from October 2023 indicated that Windows 11 was running on over 400 million devices, taking two years to reach this figure, while Windows 10 achieved the same milestone in just one year. A key factor influencing this slower uptake has been Windows 11’s stringent hardware requirements, which have left millions of older machines unable to upgrade.
So will it bring a surge in PC upgrades? In 2025, PC shipments in the United States are projected to rise only two percent, largely due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and a lack of consumer interest in purchasing larger items. Despite a 15 percent increase in imports during the first quarter of the year, consumer demand remains subdued as households prioritize essential spending over discretionary items. Research Director Ishan Dutt from Canalys highlighted that while PC purchases are currently exempt from tariffs, rising prices in other categories have created inflationary pressures, leading the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts. Additionally, many consumers are indifferent to the approaching end of support for Windows 10, which is set for October 14, 2025. In contrast, the commercial sector is experiencing growth, with an expected eight percent increase in shipments as businesses transition to Windows 11. This shift is anticipated to counterbalance the stagnation in consumer spending, with Canalys predicting a six and a half percent growth in consumer PC sales next year, contingent on future tariff policies.
Sp if your customers aren’t looking to upgrade, Microsoft’s Cloud Solution Provider partners will begin selling extension plans for Windows 10’s Extended Support Program starting September 1, 2025. This program allows organizations to continue receiving critical security updates for Windows 10 devices that are nearing the end of their support lifecycle. Windows 10 version 22H2 will reach its end-of-life date on October 14, 2025, leaving devices using this version without support or updates. Despite maintaining over fifty-three percent of the market share as of May, devices still running this version can pose significant security risks. The Extended Support Program will be available for a maximum of three years, starting at sixty-one dollars per device for the first year, with increasing costs for subsequent renewals. Individual consumers will also have the option to enroll in this program for the first time, starting at thirty dollars, but these enrollments will only last one year. Additionally, users of Windows 10 devices accessing Windows 11 Cloud PCs will receive these updates at no extra cost.
I did want to acknowledge that Congress passed their budget bill, the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, In a significant move, The bill raises the threshold for qualifying small businesses from $50 million to $75 million and increases capital gains tax exclusions. A proposed 10-year ban on state-level regulations concerning artificial intelligence is not included in the bill.
Why do we care?
This isn’t the “PC supercycle” that some vendors would like you to believe. It’s more of a slow bleed toward modern endpoints and hybrid solutions. For consumer-focused IT providers: Don’t expect a major “Windows 11 upgrade wave” in the SMB or prosumer space. The consumer market is weak—tariffs, inflation, and general upgrade apathy are real.
For commercial MSPs: The 8% bump in shipments signals businesses are moving. Larger clients are budgeting for refreshes; smaller ones may lag and need MSPs to nudge them with risk framing around unsupported systems.
For IT service providers, the smart play is not to push hardware alone but to frame the coming Windows 10 end-of-life as part of a larger “digital workspace modernization” conversation:
- Who needs new endpoints?
- Who could shift to Cloud PCs or VDI?
- Who’s worth putting on Extended Support but hardening with layered security?
The policy changes in the budget bill also merit attention: larger SMBs (now up to $75M) are in a better position to spend, and state-level AI rules are back in play. Positioning yourself as a guide through this regulatory and technical transition will differentiate you from the MSPs who are still just “patching and replacing PCs.”