User adoption of Windows 11 is experiencing a slowdown as the end of support for Windows 10 approaches. As of early June 2025, Windows 11 holds a market share of 43.22 percent, a decrease from 43.72 percent the previous month, while Windows 10’s share has increased to 53.19 percent. Kieren Jessop, a research manager at Canalys, noted that despite the stall, the overall adoption is progressing as expected, with a forecasted monthly increase of 0.5 to 1.5 percent globally through October. Jessop also highlighted the impact of inventory upticks in the United States, suggesting that Windows 11 now dominates the majority of Windows desktops in that market. Canalys anticipates growth in commercial shipments of Windows-only devices, projecting an 8.1 percent increase in the U.S. for 2025.
Why do we care?
This means one in two business PCs worldwide still runs an OS that will lose mainstream support on October 14, 2025.
While Microsoft never planned for this, they blinked once—could do so again. If migration stalls, Redmond might extend Windows 10 support or lower ESU pricing, reducing urgency (and shrinking refresh revenue).
The plateau in Windows 11 share is not a failure—it’s the calm before a necessary refresh wave. For MSPs and other IT services firms, the winners will:
Turn audits into backlog. Use automated discovery tools now to tag every Windows 10 device with upgrade eligibility, cost, and refresh priority.
Productize the migration. Offer fixed-fee “Secure-by-Design” bundles that combine device, config hardening, data migration, and e-waste handling.
Stage AI capability, not AI hype. Package small Copilot-aligned workflows (e.g., local meeting transcription) that justify premium “AI PC” specs.
Lock in the next cycle. Embed lifecycle monitoring and refresh triggers in contracts so the 2030 OS cut-off isn’t another fire drill.
Windows 10’s sunset forces a hardware reckoning. Guiding customers through a structured, value-centric migration—rather than a last-minute scramble—positions service providers as strategic allies and opens cross-sell lanes for security, device management, and AI enablement.