Generative AI Market to Hit $36B by 2028 Despite Perceived Slow Adoption

For the naysayers, I spotted this – in a new S&P Global Report, Revenues of generative artificial intelligence technology offerings are forecast to reach $3.7 billion in 2023 and expand to $36 billion by 2028 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58 percent from 2023 to 2028.

But Axios compared that to larger consumer-facing companies, noting that Five years after smartphones hit the market, their global market revenue was around $330 billion — nearly ten times what’s forecast for generative AI.

Apple’s iPhone alone brought in $78.7 billion in revenue in 2012, five years after launch — more than double the total predicted market for all generative AI five years from now.

Also, in the naysayer column is a new survey by Morgan Stanley. A 2,000-person study in April focused on AI adoption and found that only 19% of respondents had used ChatGPT, and even fewer, 9% of respondents, had used the Google Bard chatbot. 

This quote within the Axios article, “AI providers will often be operating in less lucrative B2B markets.”

Huh?   Less lucrative?    Not in my eyes.     The insight is not that incorrect assessment, but instead the fact that the established businesses of AI take a lot longer (if at all) to reach the entrenched nature of existing businesses such as the iPhone or Google’s ad business.    That’s ok – only massive companies need markets to move that much.   And that’s the key here – you’re not measuring at massive scale in most provider businesses, but instead what high value you can add to customers.   It doesn’t need to be that big.