Some market data caught my eye too.
First, let’s look at the consumer – despite inflation concerns, Online sales on Black Friday were up 2.3% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics. Electronics were a “major growth driver,” with sales up 221% over the average day in October; smart home items were up 271%; audio equipment was up 230%; toys were up 285%; and exercise equipment was up 218%. Mobile transactions accounted for a record 48% of online sales, up from 44% last year.
However, there are new pay data, too – and wages are falling, not rising. From Axios:
U.S. wage data points to workers succeeding at attaining a one-time surge in pay in 2021 and the early months of 2022 but also suggests wage growth is receding to closer-to-normal rates.
Average hourly earnings among private sector workers rose at a 3.9% annual rate in the three months that ended in October. That’s down from a recent high of 6.3% in late 2021 and 5.9% as recently as the three months ended in July.
And, out with some SMB survey data from the summer, some insights into levels of concern across industries regarding inflation and recession.
Topping the lists of industries very concerned about inflation – are wholesale and distribution, at 71%; Agriculture, at 63%; and hospitality, at 59%. At the bottom, Non-profits at 44%, retail at 43%, and healthcare at 40%. IT services are in there, at 49%.
On the recession side, rating very concerned, 52% of manufacturing, 50% agriculture, 47% financial services, and at the bottom, retail, 29%, education, 27%, and non-profit, 25%. IT services, right in there at 38%.
Seems consumers are not worried, despite the fact that their pay won’t go as far. Perhaps a good sign of confidence? Rather than the broad confidence, it’s the specific industry guidance to consider. As always, get close to your customers, and dig into which industries you serve are worried about versus those that aren’t, and adjust your plans accordingly.