Earlier this week, I reported a gloomy Bloomberg model that assured a recession. Goldman Sachs has one out that’s less grim, and the bank says that the risk that the U.S. economy must fall into a recession to slow inflation has diminished slightly. Goldman noted that even if a recession is not required, there is a heightened risk that outsized moves by the Fed will force one anyway.
If you want to hear from CEOs, they’re gloomy too. 91% of US CEOs anticipate a recession in the next 12 months, according to a KPMG survey. Insider has a whole piece with quotes from various business leaders that’s predictably glum.
If you want a bit of optimism, IDC has some predictions around Western Europe, predicting the services market will grow. Researcher IDC has raised its regional outlook by 100 to 200 basis points each year to more than seven percent for 2022. The group also boosted predictions by 5.5 percent to six percent growth per year for the next four years in its Worldwide Semiannual Services Tracker.
Meanwhile, those jobs that depended on office workers are taking a hit. An example — Facebook parent Meta is reducing contract positions at several transportation firms that shuttled workers to its offices, CNBC reported last week.
This should be the 2023 planning time. The year distinctly appears challenging from an overall landscape. I’m thinking now about my 2023 predictions, and while I anticipate slowing inflation, I suspect overall growth will too.
It’s that last tidbit I think is worth considering. Uncertainty is the mood, yet the critical insight is trying to anticipate the unexpected changes to the economy. Those changes will offer opportunities. Transportation firms are taking a hit due to less need to move office workers around. There are reports of impacts to downtowns, such as lunch restaurants, that are slow to recover. What new business space will be created due to this impact.. and what services do they require?